Comparison of Coup Attempts in Türkiye and Mali: Analysis of the Reasons for Success in Mali and Failure in Türkiye

Abstract

This article explores the reasons why coup attempts failed in Türkiye while succeeding in Mali, despite different political and socio-economic contexts. By examining the internal and external dynamics that shaped these events, the analysis focuses on several key aspects: the roles of the armed forces, the robustness of democratic institutions, the involvement of international actors, and the socio-political particularities of the two nations. In Türkiye, the July 2016 coup failed mainly due to the strong opposition of public opinion and democratic institutions, as well as the crucial support of certain segments of the military for the civilian administration. The article highlights the importance of popular mobilization, free media, and established democratic institutions, which resisted the attempted overthrow of the government. Moreover, Türkiye benefits from a relatively stable economy and international support that played a significant role in the government’s resilience against the coup attempt. In contrast, in Mali, successive coups have often been facilitated by a combination of factors such as weak state institutions, chronic political instability, widespread poverty, and ethnic and territorial conflicts. The article highlights how the Malian military, faced with ineffective and corrupt governance, has found legitimacy in seizing power, often perceived by a section of the population as a means of restoring order and security. The international reaction, while generally disapproving of the coups, has been relatively limited, allowing the military to maintain its control without significant pressure for the rapid restoration of civilian rule. The analysis concludes that the divergences in coup outcomes in Türkiye and Mali can be attributed to marked differences in institutional robustness, popular support for the regime in place, socio-economic dynamics, and international reactions. These elements have contributed to Türkiye's relative stability in the face of overthrow attempts and Mali's persistent fragility, making coups more likely to succeed in the latter country.